Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

TA Perkins, SM Cavany, SM Moore… - Proceedings of the …, 2020 - National Acad Sciences
By March 2020, COVID-19 led to thousands of deaths and disrupted economic activity
worldwide. As a result of narrow case definitions and limited capacity for testing, the number …

Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty

K Shea, RK Borchering, WJM Probert… - Proceedings of the …, 2023 - National Acad Sciences
Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and
conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and …

[HTML][HTML] Arbovirus coinfection and co-transmission: A neglected public health concern?

CBF Vogels, C Rückert, SM Cavany, TA Perkins… - PLoS …, 2019 - journals.plos.org
Epidemiological synergy between outbreaks of viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti
mosquitoes, such as chikungunya, dengue, and Zika viruses, has resulted in coinfection of …

[HTML][HTML] Pandemic-associated mobility restrictions could cause increases in dengue virus transmission

SM Cavany, G España… - PLoS neglected …, 2021 - journals.plos.org
Background The COVID-19 pandemic has induced unprecedented reductions in human
mobility and social contacts throughout the world. Because dengue virus (DENV) …

An evaluation of tuberculosis contact investigations against national standards

SM Cavany, T Sumner, E Vynnycky, C Flach, RG White… - Thorax, 2017 - thorax.bmj.com
Background Contact tracing is a key element in England's 2015 collaborative TB strategy,
although proposed indicators of successful contact tracing remain undescribed. Methods We …

[HTML][HTML] Optimizing the deployment of ultra-low volume and targeted indoor residual spraying for dengue outbreak response

SM Cavany, G España, AL Lloyd… - PLoS computational …, 2020 - journals.plos.org
Recent years have seen rising incidence of dengue and large outbreaks of Zika and
chikungunya, which are all caused by viruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. In …

Modeling cellular co-infection and reassortment of bluetongue virus in Culicoides midges

SM Cavany, C Barbera, M Carpenter, C Rodgers… - Virus …, 2022 - academic.oup.com
When related segmented RNA viruses co-infect a single cell, viral reassortment can occur,
potentially leading to new strains with pandemic potential. One virus capable of …

Ignoring transmission dynamics leads to underestimation of the impact of a novel intervention against mosquito-borne disease

SM Cavany, JH Huber, A Wieler, QM Tran… - medRxiv, 2021 - medrxiv.org
New vector-control technologies to fight mosquito-borne diseases are urgently needed, the
adoption of which depends on efficacy estimates from large-scale cluster-randomized trials …

Natural immune boosting can cause synchrony in susceptibility and outbreaks of respiratory infections with rapidly waning immunity

MG Pritchard, SM Cavany, SJ Dunachie, GF Medley… - medRxiv, 2023 - medrxiv.org
Natural immune boosting is a mechanism in which re-exposure to a pathogen while
immunity is waning can prolong protection against reinfection. Its role in viral respiratory …

[HTML][HTML] Transmission events revealed in tuberculosis contact investigations in London

SM Cavany, E Vynnycky, T Sumner, N Macdonald… - Scientific reports, 2018 - nature.com
Contact tracing is a key part of tuberculosis prevention and care, aiming to hasten diagnosis
and prevent transmission. The proportion of case-contact pairs for which recent transmission …