Chest
Volume 93, Issue 1, January 1988, Pages 123-127
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Fifteen-year Interval Spirometric Evaluation of the Oregon Predictive Equations

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The 1969 Oregon spirometric predictive equations were evaluated by retesting 199 of the 988 original sample population after 15 years. The 1969 data were used to test for sample bias between the retested and not-retested groups. There was no significant difference in mean values for age, height, or test results except for a five-year age difference in men. Regression analysis of residuals and the differences between calculated and predicted values of annual decrements of FVC, FEV1, and FEF25-75% on age revealed no statistically significant age trend. Although residual means were statistically significant for FVC and FEV1 for men and FVC and FEF25-75% for women, the differences between calculated and predicted annual decrements were significant only for women in FEF25-75%. Although group performance was accurately predicted for most tests, test SDs and SEMs demonstrated considerable individual variation. Lower limits of normality are suggested to assist in evaluating previously-tested patients.

Section snippets

Material and Methods

A total of 208 men and women from the original sample population were still residing in the Willamette River Valley of western Oregon and were available for retesting. No information was available concerning the whereabouts of the subjects who had relocated or died. Questionnaires similar to those in the original study were used to assess intercurrent cardiopulmonary diseases, cigarette smoking, and exposure to ambient and occupational air pollutants since 1969. Interviewers reviewed the

Results

We reexamined the 1969 test values for 961 men and women after 27 deletions for erroneous value. The revised data were then fitted by age and height to multiple regression equations for men and women. Original and revised equations are listed in Table 4. Coefficients of multiple correlation and standard errors of estimate for the original and revised equations are listed in Table 5. The revised equations are similar to the original equations; therefore, the revised equations were used in the

Discussion

A major problem in any longterm study is the loss of subjects due to geographic relocation, illness, death, or failure to cooperate. The exact status of all our subjects not retested is uncertain, but the majority moved out of the region. The survival effect of selective mortality over an extended period of time could result in a sample with relatively better ventilatory function15 and possibly lower cross-sectionally predicted spirometric values compared with observed values.5 Theoretically,

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Partially funded by NIH Biomedical Support Grant RR-07079.

Manuscript received March 20; revision accepted May 26.

Reprint requests: Dr. Morris, VA Medical Center, PO Box 1034, Portland, Oregon 97207

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