Chest
Volume 130, Issue 4, October 2006, Pages 1129-1137
Journal home page for Chest

Original Research
Thirty-Year Cumulative Incidence of Chronic Bronchitis and COPD in Relation to 30-Year Pulmonary Function and 40-Year Mortality: A Follow-up in Middle-Aged Rural Men

https://doi.org/10.1378/chest.130.4.1129Get rights and content

Purpose

To describe the 30-year cumulative incidence of chronic bronchitis and COPD in relation to smoking habits. The effect of chronic bronchitis on pulmonary function and mortality was also examined.

Methods

Middle-aged men belonging to two rural Finnish cohorts of the Seven Countries Study (n = 1,711 in 1959) were followed up for up to 40 years until 2000. Standard questionnaires were used to measure chronic bronchitis, and repeated spirometry was used to evaluate pulmonary function during the 30 years. Forty-year mortality data were examined.

Results

The cumulative incidence of chronic bronchitis and COPD was 42% and 32%, respectively, in continuous smokers, compared to 26% and 14% in ex-smokers and 22% and 12% in never-smokers. During the follow-up, subjects with chronic bronchitis had on average 252 mL (95% confidence interval, 211 to 293 mL) lower forced expiratory volume than those without it. The decrease in forced expiratory volume attributable to chronic bronchitis was most pronounced in those with persistent symptoms and in smokers. In subjects with chronic bronchitis, all-cause mortality was increased by a hazard ratio of 1.30 (95% confidence interval, 1.02 to 1.65). Smokers with chronic bronchitis who decreased their daily cigarette consumption increased their median life span by 2.4 years.

Conclusions

The lifetime risk of chronic bronchitis among smokers is approximately two in five, and almost one half of smokers who have chronic bronchitis also acquire COPD. Chronic bronchitis is related to earlier death, also in never-smokers, probably partly through a rapid decline in pulmonary function.

Section snippets

Subjects

In 1959, all men (n = 1,711) aged 40 to 59 years from two rural areas in Finland were invited to the international Seven Countries Study17, 18 (Fig 1). Re-examinations were performed in 1964, 1969, 1974, 1984, 1989, and 2000.

Definition of Chronic Bronchitis

At the baseline, chronic bronchitis was defined as productive cough for at least 3 months a year.19 From 1969 to 1989, chronic bronchitis was defined by a positive response to the question, “Do you bring up phlegm on most days for as much as three months each year” (British

Results

By 75 years of age, the cumulative incidence of chronic bronchitis was 42% (95% confidence interval, 38 to 47%) in continuous smokers, compared to 26% (95% confidence interval, 18 to 34%) in ex-smokers and 22% (95% confidence interval, 16 to 28%) in never-smokers (Fig 2). The cumulative incidence of chronic bronchitis leveled off after the age of 65 years. The cumulative incidence of persistent chronic bronchitis was 22% (95% confidence interval, 19 to 26%) in continuous smokers, compared to

Discussion

In our study, > 40% of smokers living in a rural environment acquired chronic bronchitis during their life; in most cases, chronic bronchitis was persistent and half of those subjects with chronic bronchitis also acquired chronic airflow obstruction (COPD). In ex-smokers and never-smokers, chronic bronchitis was mostly nonpersistent, and most of subjects with airflow obstruction did not have chronic bronchitis. Generally, chronic bronchitis was associated with lower pulmonary function and

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    Supported by the Finnish Academy, the Finnish Anti-Tuberculosis Association Foundation, the Finnish Lung Health Association, and the National Institute on Aging (United States) [grant EDC-1 1 RO1 AGO8762–01A1].

    No author has any conflict of interest.

    Reproduction of this article is prohibited without written permission from the American College of Chest Physicians (www.chestjournal.org/misc/reprints.shtml).

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