Elsevier

Respiratory Medicine

Volume 100, Issue 1, January 2006, Pages 115-122
Respiratory Medicine

Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) classification of lung disease and mortality: findings from the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rmed.2005.03.035Get rights and content
Under an Elsevier user license
open archive

Summary

Objective

To determine whether a modified Global Initiative on Obstructive Lung Diseases (GOLD) classification of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) predicts mortality in a cohort of subjects followed for up to 11 years.

Methods

We analyzed data from 15,759 adult participants, aged 43–66 years at baseline, in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study. All baseline and follow-up data were available for 15,440 (97.9%) of the initial participants. We classified subjects using a modification of the GOLD criteria for COPD (prebronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1) stratification of disease severity), and added a “restricted” category (FEV1/FVC>70% and FVC<80% predicted). We used Cox proportional hazard models to determine the risk of impaired lung function on subsequent mortality, after adjusting for age, race, sex and smoking status.

Results

1242 (8.0%) subjects died by the end of 1997. The overall rate of death was 8.9 per 1000 person years, but varied from 5.4/1000 among normal subjects to 42.9/1000 among subjects with GOLD Stage 3 or 4 COPD. After adjusting for covariates, all GOLD categories, along with the restricted category, predicted a higher risk of death: GOLD Stage 3 or 4, hazard ratio (HR) 5.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4, 7.3; GOLD Stage 2 HR 2.4, 95% CI 2.0, 2.9; GOLD Stage 1 HR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1, 1.6; GOLD Stage 0 HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.3, 1.8; and restricted HR 2.3, 95% CI 1.9, 2.8.

Conclusion

The modified GOLD classification system of COPD predicts mortality in this cohort of middle-aged Americans followed for up to 11 years.

Keywords

Lung function
Mortality
COPD
Smoking
GOLD classification
Cohort study

Cited by (0)