Elsevier

Tubercle

Volume 52, Issue 2, June 1971, Pages 73-87

Original article
Ten-year results during the introduction of chemotherapy for tuberculosis

https://doi.org/10.1016/0041-3879(71)90015-8Get rights and content

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    The fitted lower bound, which determines tuberculosis incidence after 2000, was not sensitive to the initial transmission parameter in 1900. Model fitting also considered that chemotherapy was unavailable before 196020 and that the mean duration of disease is 2 years without treatment, 0·8 years under effective DOTS (directly observed treatment, short course), and 1·5 years for programmes other than effective DOTS.21 We applied the calibrated model to estimate future tuberculosis incidence under different scenarios of smoking, solid-fuel use, and DOTS coverage.

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