Table 6

One-way sensitivity analysis for stable population

Cost difference (£)QALY differenceICER (£/QALY)Probability cost-effective*
Varying the rate ratio
 Best-case NIV+£8804+0.562£15 66599.2%
 Worst-case NIV+£8112−0.111Dominated0%
 Base case+£8488+0.310£27 3804%
 Best-case ‘Western’ setting NIV†+£8812+0.271£31 1968%
 Worst-case ‘Western’, setting NIV†+£8112−0.111Dominated0%
Change in utility on NIV
 +0.20 utility+£8488+1.147£7401100%
 +0.10 utility+£8488+0.72£11 597100%
 +0.05 utility+£8488+0.514£16 51482.4%
 Base case+£8488+0.310£27 3804%
 −0.05+£8488+0.097£87 5050%
Varying duration of effect
 2 years+£8488+0.150£56 1530%
 10 years (model horizon)+£7896+0.413£19 11958%
Alternate model time horizon
 2 years+£2057+0.033£62 3330%
 15 years+£10 696+0.392£27 2863%
 20 years+£11 750+0.429£27 3893%
Alternate mortality and readmission risk
 Higher risks from Garcia-Aymerich et al 12 +£5137+0.247£20 79744%
  • *Cost-effective at £20 000/QALY.

  • †Western studies included studies reporting hospitalisations from Italy, Poland, The Netherlands, Germany and the UK

  • ICER, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; NIV, non-invasive ventilation; QALY, quality-adjusted life year.