Model parameters for 4C Mortality and 4C Deterioration prognostic model
| 4C Mortality score | 4C Deterioration | |||
| Variable | Characteristic | Log(OR) | ||
| Age (years) | <50 | – | Intercept | 4.033 |
| 50–59 | +2 | |||
| 60–69 | +4 | Age (years) | 0.0159 | |
| 70–79 | +6 | Age (spline 1) | −0.0129 | |
| ≥80 | +7 | Age (spline 2) | 0.1265 | |
| Sex | Female | – | Sex | |
| Male | +1 | Female | – | |
| Male | 0.2439 | |||
| Number of comorbidities | 0 | – | Nosocomial | |
| 1 | +1 | No | – | |
| ≥2 | +2 | Yes | 0.2439 | |
| Respiratory rate (breaths/minute) | <20 | – | Radiographic infiltrates | |
| 20–29 | +1 | No | – | |
| ≥30 | +2 | Yes | 0.3252 | |
| Peripheral oxygen saturation on room air (%) | ≥92 | – | Respiratory rate (breaths/minute) | −0.0145 |
| <92 | +2 | Respiratory rate (spline 1) | 0.5992 | |
| Respiratory rate (spline 2) | −1.078 | |||
| Glasgow Coma Scale score | 15 | – | ||
| <15 | +2 | |||
| Urea (mmol/L) | <7 | – | Peripheral oxygen saturation (SpO2) | −0.07078 |
| 7–14 | +1 | SpO2 (spline 1) | −0.0248 | |
| >14 | +3 | SpO2 (spline 2) | 1.024 | |
| C reactive protein (mg/L) | <50 | – | Room air or oxygen | |
| 50–99 | +1 | Room air | – | |
| ≥100 | +2 | Oxygen therapy | 0.7450 | |
| | Glasgow Coma Scale score | |||
| 15 | – | |||
| <15 | 0.6028 | |||
| Urea (mmol/L) | 0.0508 | |||
| Urea (spline 1) | 0.4446 | |||
| Urea (spline 2) | −1.035 | |||
| C reactive protein (mg/L) | 0.0097 | |||
| C reactive protein (spline 1) | −0.0395 | |||
| C reactive protein (spline 2) | 0.0588 | |||
| Lymphocyte count (x109/L) | −0.4564 | |||
| Lymphocytes (spline 1) | 0.7309 | |||
| Lymphocytes (spline 2) | −0.8113 | |||
Restricted cubic spline knot positions are:
Age = 38.5, 67.7, 81.1, 92.9;
Respiratory rate=16, 19, 24, 37;
SpO2=84, 94, 96, 100;
Urea = 2.9, 5.7, 9.2, 25.5;
C reactive protein=5, 45, 113, 297;
Lymphocytes = 0.3, 0.7, 1.1, 2.4.