Table 2

Multilevel multivariable logistic regression models of factors associated with in-hospital mortality for each period

VariableMarch–May (OR, 95% CI)June–September (OR, 95% CI)
Age band (years)
18–391 (reference)1 (reference)
40–492.24 (1.90 to 2.64)2.83 (2.49 to 3.21)
50–594.70 (4.06 to 5.45)5.35 (4.78 to 6.00)
60–698.66 (7.50 to 10.00)11.38 (10.19 to 12.72)
70–7914.48 (12.56 to 16.71)18.93 (16.96 to 21.13)
≥8021.16 (18.35 to 24.39)29.86 (26.76 to 33.33)
Sex
Female1 (reference)1 (reference)
Male1.47 (1.43 to 1.52)1.45 (1.42 to 1.48)
Deprivation quintile
5 (least deprived)1 (reference)1 (reference)
41.02 (0.97 to 1.07)1.00 (0.97 to 1.04)
31.06 (1.01 to 1.11)1.04 (1.00 to 1.08)
21.04 (0.99 to 1.09)1.03 (1.00 to 1.07)
1 (most deprived)1.05 (1.00 to 1.11)1.05 (1.01 to 1.09)
Ethnicity
White1 (reference)1 (reference)
Bangladeshi1.45 (1.20 to 1.77)1.65 (1.48 to 1.85)
Indian1.26 (1.15 to 1.38)1.31 (1.23 to 1.40)
Pakistani1.22 (1.10 to 1.36)1.24 (1.16 to 1.33)
Other Asian1.15 (1.04 to 1.27)1.24 (1.15 to 1.34)
Black African1.06 (0.94 to 1.19)1.11 (1.00 to 1.24)
Black Caribbean1.19 (1.08 to 1.32)0.91 (0.83 to 0.99)
Other Black1.26 (1.07 to 1.48)1.00 (0.87 to 1.16)
Mixed1.31 (1.11 to 1.55)1.02 (0.88 to 1.17)
Other1.04 (0.95 to 1.14)0.97 (0.90 to 1.05)
Charlson Comorbidity Index items*
Peripheral vascular disease1.18 (1.11 to 1.25)1.28 (1.23 to 1.33)
Congestive heart failure1.54 (1.48 to 1.60)1.81 (1.77 to 1.86)
Acute myocardial infarction1.07 (1.02 to 1.12)1.19 (1.16 to 1.23)
Cerebrovascular disease1.05 (1.00 to 1.10)1.11 (1.08 to 1.15)
Dementia1.39 (1.34 to 1.45)1.43 (1.39 to 1.47)
Chronic pulmonary disease1.09 (1.05 to 1.12)1.31 (1.28 to 1.34)
Connective tissue disease/rheumatic disease1.19 (1.10 to 1.29)1.20 (1.14 to 1.26)
Peptic ulcer0.99 (0.84 to 1.16)1.14 (1.03 to 1.27)
Mild liver disease0.96 (0.88 to 1.05)1.11 (1.05 to 1.17)
Moderate or severe liver disease4.75 (4.16 to 5.41)5.15 (4.71 to 5.64)
Diabetes without chronic complications1.12 (1.08 to 1.16)1.07 (1.04 to 1.09)
Diabetes with chronic complications1.19 (1.10 to 1.29)1.11 (1.05 to 1.17)
Paraplegia and hemiplegia1.10 (1.05 to 1.15)1.16 (1.12 to 1.20)
Renal disease1.15 (1.13 to 1.17)1.22 (1.20 to 1.23)
Primary cancer1.51 (1.43 to 1.60)1.57 (1.51 to 1.64)
Metastatic carcinoma1.97 (1.83 to 2.13)2.54 (2.41 to 2.67)
Obesity1.32 (1.25 to 1.40)1.43 (1.38 to 1.48)
  • Models are multilevel, multivariable models that included each of the variables listed as fixed effects and for NHS hospital trust as a random effect. The March–August model is based on data for 103 563 patients and the September–March model on data for 239 674 patients with no missing data. A stable OR for the comorbidity HIV/AIDS could not be calculated due to small numbers. Figures in bold denote 95% CI not crossing the value 1, indicating statistical significance.

  • *For Charlson Comorbidity Index items, the reference category is patients without the specified comorbidity. For Charlson Comorbidity Index items relating to liver disease, diabetes and cancer, three mutually exclusive categories were used.