Scotland | Wales | |||
IRR (95% CI) | P value | IRR (95% CI) | P value | |
Pre-lockdown intercept in 2020 compared with 5-year average | 0.84 (0.69 to 1.02) | 0.076 | 0.67 (0.53 to 0.83) | <0.001 |
Week-on-week change in weeks 1–12 | ||||
Five-year average | 0.98 (0.97 to 1.00) | 0.059 | 0.98 (0.96 to 1.00) | 0.042 |
2020 | 0.97 (0.96 to 1.00) | 0.032 | 0.95 (0.93 to 0.97) | <0.001 |
2020 relative to 5-year average | 1.00 (0.97 to 1.02) | 0.768 | 0.97 (0.94 to 1.00) | 0.033 |
Overall change in trend at week 13 | ||||
Five-year average | 0.97 (0.79 to 1.20) | 0.800 | 1.01 (0.81 to 1.27) | 0.905 |
2020 | 0.57 (0.44 to 0.75) | <0.001 | 0.71 (0.51 to 0.98) | 0.042 |
2020 relative to 5-year average | 0.59 (0.42 to 0.83) | 0.003 | 0.70 (0.47 to 1.04) | 0.082 |
Week-on-week change in weeks 13–18 | ||||
Five-year average | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.05) | 0.724 | 0.99 (0.93 to 1.05) | 0.636 |
2020 | 1.03 (0.95 to 1.12) | 0.432 | 0.82 (0.73 to 0.92) | 0.001 |
2020 relative to 5-year average | 1.04 (0.95 to 1.15) | 0.400 | 0.84 (0.73 to 0.95) | 0.008 |
IRR, incidence rate ratio.