Table 5

Simplified score to predict 30-day mortality in hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in the derivation cohort: sensitivity, specificity, likelihood ratios and predictive values for the different scores (0–30) in the derivation cohort

ScoreParticipantsSen (%)Spe (%)+LR1/-LRPPV (%)NPV (%)
TotalDying within 30 days
N%
04812.11000125.3
113900.099.91.91.01815.90025.697.9
219331.699.97.41.07962.94026.799.5
3215104.799.515.01.17131.81028.498.9
4230114.898.423.21.28014.04030.297.6
5254166.397.131.91.42510.83032.597.0
62352510.695.241.41.6238.56733.596.2
72373213.592.249.71.8356.39838.395.
82003919.588.557.92.1025.01741.693.7
91915327.783.964.32.3513.98644.392.2
101363928.777.669.82.5733.12046.590.2
111334533.873.073.02.7762.73248.489.0
12943638.367.777.22.9712.39250.187.6
13914044.063.579.53.0992.17851.286.6
14753242.758.881.53.1851.97851.985.4
15803240.055.083.33.2861.85052.684.5
16833643.451.285.23.4561.74753.983.8
171234839.047.087.03.6281.64255.182.9
18975152.641.390.04.1491.53558.481.9
191045552.935.391.94.3461.42159.580.8
20965052.128.993.84.6711.31961.379.6
21745168.923.095.75.2871.24264.178.6
22442454.517.096.64.9481.16362.677.5
23372362.214.197.45.3731.13464.577.0
24332060.611.497.95.5131.10665.176.6
25231460.99.198.45.8351.08366.476.2
26331751.57.498.86.2061.06767.775.9
27251456.05.499.49.7101.05176.775.7
28201995.03.899.931.5201.03891.475.4
299777.81.599.919.2101.01586.775.0
30661000.71001.00710074.9
  • The number of individuals in different risk categories was low (0–2 points; 380 (11.3%)), medium (3–5 points; 699 (20.8%)), high (6–8 points; 672 (20.0%)) and very high (9–30 points; 1607 (47.9%)).

  • -LR, negative likelihood ratio; +LR, positive likelihood ratio; NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value; Sen, sensitivity; Spe, specificity.