Risk factors of mortality in the derivation cohort (N=983)
| Univariate OR | P value | Likelihood ratio χ2 of five final predictors | Multivariate OR | P value | |
| (95% CI) | (95% CI) | ||||
| Age (years) | 2177.27 | ||||
| <50 | 1.00 | 1.00 | |||
| 50–59 | 1.30 (1.28 to 7.02) | 0.01 | 2.39 (1.49 to 3.84) | <0.001 | |
| 60–69 | 6.10 (2.73 to 13.66) | <0.001 | 2.15 (1.32 to 3.50) | <0.01 | |
| 70–79 | 14.86 (6.89 to 32.04) | <0.001 | 7.40 (4.67 to 11.74) | <0.001 | |
| ≥80 | 20.87 (9.93 to 43.86) | <0.001 | 10.73 (6.82 to 16.90) | <0.001 | |
| Male sex (vs female) | 1.23 (0.94 to 1.62) | 0.137 | – | ||
| Ever smoked (vs never smoked) | 2.14 (1.52 to 3.01) | <0.001 | 2.51 (1.91 to 3.29) | <0.001 | |
| Ethnicity (vs White) | |||||
| Asian | 0.57 (0.38 to 0.85) | 0.006 | 1.44 (0.71 to 2.94) | 0.301 | |
| Black | 0.39 (0.17 to 0.88) | 0.024 | 0.51 (0.16 to 1.64) | 0.257 | |
| Symptoms (vs none) | |||||
| Breathlessness | 0.80 (0.59 to 1.07) | 0.135 | – | ||
| Fever | 0.84 (0.62 to 1.14) | 0.26 | – | ||
| Cough | 0.61 (0.45 to 0.82) | 0.001 | 0.67 (0.41 to 1.09) | 0.108 | |
| Myalgia | 0.41 (0.28 to 0.63) | <0.001 | 0.79 (0.44 to 1.41) | 0.423 | |
| Headache | 0.51 (0.26 to 0.97) | 0.039 | 1.70 (0.64 to 4.51) | 0.286 | |
| Clinical parameters | |||||
| SpO2 (≤92% on air) | 3.74 (2.73 to 5.12) | <0.001 | 31.87 | 2.69 (1.80 to 4.01) | <0.001 |
| Respiratory rate (>24/min) | 2.15 (1.63 to 2.84) | <0.001 | 158.21 | 2.12 (1.35 to 3.32) | 0.001 |
| Systolic BP (≤90 mm Hg) | 2.19 (0.96 to 5.03) | 0.064 | – | ||
| BMI (>30) | 1.40 (1.03 to 1.90) | 0.033 | 11.13 | 2.18 (1.46 to 3.20) | <0.001 |
| Frailty (vs not frail, CFS 0–4) | |||||
| 1 (CFS 5–6) | 2.53 (1.73 to 3.70) | <0.001 | 1.26 (0.82 to 1.96) | 0.294 | |
| 2 (CFS 7–9) | 2.56 (1.62 to 4.06) | <0.001 | 1.28 (0.77 to 2.13) | 0.341 | |
| Residency in care home (vs own home) | 3.14 (2.28 to 4.32) | <0.001 | 1.38 (0.90 to 2.11) | 0.137 | |
| Peripheral blood markers | |||||
| CRP (>50 mmol/L) | 2.40 (1.73 to 3.32) | <0.001 | 1.42 (0.87 to 2.31) | 0.16 | |
| Total white cell count | |||||
| ≤4 × 109/L | 0.93 (0.56 to 1.55) | 0.79 | – | ||
| >11 × 109/L | 2.04 (2.09 to 4.15) | <0.001 | 1.76 (1.18 to 2.61) | <0.01 | |
| Lymphocytes (<0.7 × 109/L) | 1.97 (1.47 to 2.64) | <0.001 | 1.67 (1.17 to 2.37) | <0.01 | |
| Chronic kidney disease stage (vs 1, eGFR≥90 mL/min/1.73 m2) | 1.00 | ||||
| 2 eGFR 60–89 | 2.35 (1.53 to 3.62) | <0.001 | 0.91 (0.49 to 1.69) | 0.769 | |
| 3 eGFR 30–44 and 45–59 | 6.09 (3.90 to 9.50) | <0.001 | 1.46 (0.78 to 2.71) | 0.234 | |
| 4 eGFR 15–29 | 8.88 (4.82 to 16.34) | <0.001 | 1.78 (0.82 to 3.85) | 0.145 | |
| 5 eGFR<15 | 15.73 (6.85 to 36.14) | <0.001 | 3.82 (1.43 to 10.26) | <0.01 | |
| CXR (≥4 zones affected, vs no abnormal zones) | 1.89 (1.42 to 2.52) | <0.001 | 1.73 (1.22 to 2.46) | <0.01 | |
| Medications (≥5 different) | 2.59 (1.93 to 3.48) | <0.001 | 0.90 (0.53 to 1.52) | 0.695 | |
| Co-morbidities (vs none) | |||||
| Dementia | 3.53 (2.46 to 5.08) | <0.001 | 1.54 (0.97 to 2.44) | 0.066 | |
| CVA/stroke | 3.50 (2.32 to 5.28) | <0.001 | 44.98 | 1.92 (1.18 to 3.11) | <0.01 |
| Cardiac disease | 2.84 (2.13 to 3.80) | <0.001 | 1.15 (0.70 to 1.91) | 0.579 | |
| Cancer | 2.60 (1.77 to 3.83) | <0.001 | 1.85 (0.91 to 3.75) | 0.091 | |
| Hypertension | 2.46 (1.85 to 3.26) | <0.001 | 1.10 (0.65 to 1.88) | 0.717 | |
| Diabetes mellitus | 1.40 (1.02 to 1.91) | 0.036 | 1.00 (0.58 to 1.75) | 0.981 | |
| Anxiety/psychosis | 1.20 (0.84 to 1.71) | 0.318 | – | ||
| Lung disease | 1.15 (0.86 to 1.55) | 0.35 | – |
Out of the starting 75 variables, those with numerically small ORs or a p value of >0.05 following univariate regression were not included in table 1.
BMI, body mass index; BP, blood pressure; CFS, Clinical Frailty Scale; CRP, c-reactive protein; CVA, cerebrovascular accident; CXR, chest radiograph; eGFR, estimated glomerular filtration rate.