Table 2

Poisson models of asthma deaths in 2020 and 5-year average


Scotland Wales
IRR (95% CI)P valueIRR (95% CI)P value
Pre-lockdown trend in 2020 compared with 5-year average2.07 (0.78 to 5.50)0.1431.14 (0.35 to 3.74)0.826
Week-on-week change in weeks 1–12
 Five-year average0.96 (0.87 to 1.06)0.4281.01 (0.90 to 1.14)0.859
 20201.04 (0.95 to 1.14)0.3721.03 (0.92 to 1.16)0.595
 2020 relative to 5-year average1.08 (0.95 to 1.24)0.2351.02 (0.87 to 1.20)0.802
Overall change in trend at week 13
 Five-year average1.79 (0.60 to 5.32)0.2950.67 (0.14 to 2.66)0.584
 20200.63 (0.21 to 1.92)0.4170.82 (0.21 to 2.90)0.763
 2020 relative to 5-year average0.35 (0.07 to 1.68)0.1891.23 (0.18 to 9.01)0.836
Week-on-week change in weeks 13–18
 Five-year average0.85 (0.62 to 1.78)0.3331.01 (0.67 to 1.52)0.967
 20200.75 (0.49 to 1.17)0.2070.97 (0.68 to 1.38)0.860
 2020 relative to 5-year average0.88 (0.51 to 1.52)0.6560.96 (0.56 to 1.64)0.883
  • IRR, incidence rate ratio.