Model of number of patients meeting the inclusion criteria required to meet target event rate decreases
| Strategy | Proportion of patients with predictive probability of experiencing a PFS event at year 1 on placebo in RAINIER (%) | Observed proportion of patients with PFS events at year 1 in the risk group in RAINIER (%) | Number of patients eligible for RAINIER required at screening to identify one patient in the risk group, n | Number of patients in risk group needed to identify 1 PFS event in that risk group, n | Total number of RAINIER-eligible patients needed to reach target event rate (247 events in risk group), n |
| RAINIER overall | 47.8 | 47.1 | – | − | 517 |
| Model-predicted probability threshold, percentile | |||||
| >10% | 93.2 | 49.3 | 1.07 | 2.03 | 538 |
| >20% | 80.4 | 55.3 | 1.24 | 1.81 | 556 |
| >30% | 67.7 | 61.0 | 1.48 | 1.64 | 599 |
| >40% | 53.7 | 66.4 | 1.86 | 1.51 | 693 |
| >50% | 42.2 | 73.6 | 2.37 | 1.36 | 796 |
| >60% | 33.6 | 83.0 | 2.98 | 1.20 | 886 |
| >70% | 25.5 | 88.1 | 3.92 | 1.14 | 1100 |
| >80% | 17.6 | 87.7 | 5.68 | 1.14 | 1601 |
PFS, progression-free survival.