Table 6

Multipredictor model for relapse at set specificities

ModelPredictorsSpecificity=0.95Specificity=0.80
Maximum sensitivityNPVPPVMaximum sensitivityNPVPPV
(95% CI)(95% CI)(95% CI)(95% CI)(95% CI)(95% CI)
1Reference model0.180.950.180.460.960.12
(age to sex, HIV status) (0.09 to 0.28)(0.95 to 0.96)(0.10 to 0.25)(0.34 to 0.57)(0.95 to 0.97)(0.09 to 0.15)
2Reference model plus0.180.950.190.350.950.1
Baseline cavitary disease(0.09 to 0.29)(0.94 to 0.95)(0.11 to 0.27)(0.25 to 0.48)(0.94 to 0.96)(0.07 to 0.13)
3Reference model plus0.210.950.210.420.960.12
Positive smear at 2 months treatment(0.12 to 0.32)(0.95 to 0.96)(0.13 to 0.28)(0.29. 0.56)(0.95. 0.97)(0.08 to 0.15)
4Reference model plus0.180.950.190.460.960.12
Positive culture at 2 months treatment(0.09 to 0.29)(0.94 to 0.96)(0.10 to 0.27)(0.32 to 0.60)(0.95. 0.97)(0.09. 0.16)
5Reference model plus presence of both baseline cavitary disease and0.220.950.220.410.960.12
Positive smear at 2 months treatment(0.12 to 0.33)(0.94 to 0.96)(0.14 to 0.30)(0.28 to 0.33)(0.95 to 0.97)(0.08 to 0.15)
6Reference model plus presence of both baseline cavitary disease and0.20.950.210.460.950.13
Positive smear at 2 months treatment(0.11 to 0.31)(0.94 to 0.96)(0.12 to 0.29)(0.33 to 0.59)(0.95 to 0.97)(0.10 to 0.16)
  • NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.