Table 6

Multipredictor model for relapse at set specificities

Model	Predictors	Specificity=0.95			Specificity=0.80
		Maximum sensitivity	NPV	PPV	Maximum sensitivity	NPV	PPV
		(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)	(95% CI)
1	Reference model	0.18	0.95	0.18	0.46	0.96	0.12
	(age to sex, HIV status)	(0.09 to 0.28)	(0.95 to 0.96)	(0.10 to 0.25)	(0.34 to 0.57)	(0.95 to 0.97)	(0.09 to 0.15)
2	Reference model plus	0.18	0.95	0.19	0.35	0.95	0.1
	Baseline cavitary disease	(0.09 to 0.29)	(0.94 to 0.95)	(0.11 to 0.27)	(0.25 to 0.48)	(0.94 to 0.96)	(0.07 to 0.13)
3	Reference model plus	0.21	0.95	0.21	0.42	0.96	0.12
	Positive smear at 2 months treatment	(0.12 to 0.32)	(0.95 to 0.96)	(0.13 to 0.28)	(0.29. 0.56)	(0.95. 0.97)	(0.08 to 0.15)
4	Reference model plus	0.18	0.95	0.19	0.46	0.96	0.12
	Positive culture at 2 months treatment	(0.09 to 0.29)	(0.94 to 0.96)	(0.10 to 0.27)	(0.32 to 0.60)	(0.95. 0.97)	(0.09. 0.16)
5	Reference model plus presence of both baseline cavitary disease and	0.22	0.95	0.22	0.41	0.96	0.12
	Positive smear at 2 months treatment	(0.12 to 0.33)	(0.94 to 0.96)	(0.14 to 0.30)	(0.28 to 0.33)	(0.95 to 0.97)	(0.08 to 0.15)
6	Reference model plus presence of both baseline cavitary disease and	0.2	0.95	0.21	0.46	0.95	0.13
	Positive smear at 2 months treatment	(0.11 to 0.31)	(0.94 to 0.96)	(0.12 to 0.29)	(0.33 to 0.59)	(0.95 to 0.97)	(0.10 to 0.16)