Multipredictor model for relapse at set specificities
Model | Predictors | Specificity=0.95 | Specificity=0.80 | ||||
Maximum sensitivity | NPV | PPV | Maximum sensitivity | NPV | PPV | ||
(95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | (95% CI) | ||
1 | Reference model | 0.18 | 0.95 | 0.18 | 0.46 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
(age to sex, HIV status) | (0.09 to 0.28) | (0.95 to 0.96) | (0.10 to 0.25) | (0.34 to 0.57) | (0.95 to 0.97) | (0.09 to 0.15) | |
2 | Reference model plus | 0.18 | 0.95 | 0.19 | 0.35 | 0.95 | 0.1 |
Baseline cavitary disease | (0.09 to 0.29) | (0.94 to 0.95) | (0.11 to 0.27) | (0.25 to 0.48) | (0.94 to 0.96) | (0.07 to 0.13) | |
3 | Reference model plus | 0.21 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 0.42 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
Positive smear at 2 months treatment | (0.12 to 0.32) | (0.95 to 0.96) | (0.13 to 0.28) | (0.29. 0.56) | (0.95. 0.97) | (0.08 to 0.15) | |
4 | Reference model plus | 0.18 | 0.95 | 0.19 | 0.46 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
Positive culture at 2 months treatment | (0.09 to 0.29) | (0.94 to 0.96) | (0.10 to 0.27) | (0.32 to 0.60) | (0.95. 0.97) | (0.09. 0.16) | |
5 | Reference model plus presence of both baseline cavitary disease and | 0.22 | 0.95 | 0.22 | 0.41 | 0.96 | 0.12 |
Positive smear at 2 months treatment | (0.12 to 0.33) | (0.94 to 0.96) | (0.14 to 0.30) | (0.28 to 0.33) | (0.95 to 0.97) | (0.08 to 0.15) | |
6 | Reference model plus presence of both baseline cavitary disease and | 0.2 | 0.95 | 0.21 | 0.46 | 0.95 | 0.13 |
Positive smear at 2 months treatment | (0.11 to 0.31) | (0.94 to 0.96) | (0.12 to 0.29) | (0.33 to 0.59) | (0.95 to 0.97) | (0.10 to 0.16) |
NPV, negative predictive value; PPV, positive predictive value.