Table 3

Results of five models applied at several numbers of delayed diagnoses thresholds

ModelDelayed diagnoses
(%, 95% CI)
Scans avoided (%, 95% CI)Sensitivity (%) (95% CI)Positive predictive value (%) (95% CI)Negative predictive value (%) (95% CI)Number needed to diagnose (95% CI)TNM ITNM IITNM IIITNM IVMissing TNM
No T1 scan174 (100.0)24 542 (100.0)0.0100.00.0-1002221229
Polynomial model0 (0.0, 0.0 to 2.7)2558 (10.4, 10.0 to 10.8)100.0 (97.3 to 100.0)0.8 (0.7 to 0.9)100.0 (99.8 to 100.0)126 (126 to 130)00000
8 (4.6, 2.2 to 9.2)7544 (30.7, 30.2 to 31.3)95.4 (90.8 to 97.8)1.0 (0.8 to 1.1)99.9 (99.8 to 100.0)102 (99 to 108)51200
17 (9.8, 6.0 to 15.4)10 947 (44.6, 44.0 to 45.2)90.2 (84.6 to 94.0)1.1 (1.0 to 1.3)99.8 (99.7 to 99.9)87 (82 to 93)93212
44 (25.3, 19.2 to 32.5)16 710 (68.1, 67.5 to 68.7)74.7 (67.5 to 80.8)1.6 (1.4 to 1.9)99.7 (99.6 to 99.8)60 (55 to 68)215594
70 (40.2, 33.0 to 47.9)20 023 (81.6, 81.1 to 82.1)59.8 (52.1 to 67.0)2.2 (1.9 to 2.7)99.7 (99.6 to 99.7)43 (38 to 51)3599134
Patient characteristics model0 (0.0, 0.0 to 2.7)318 (1.3, 1.2 to 1.4)100.0 (97.3 to 100.0)0.7 (0.6 to 0.8)100.0 (98.5 to 100.0)139 (139 to 143)00000
8 (4.6, 2.2 to 9.2)4154 (16.9, 16.5 to 17.4)95.4 (90.8 to 97.8)0.8 (0.7 to 0.9)99.8 (99.6 to 99.9)123 (119 to 130)41210
16 (9.2, 5.6 to 14.8)6875 (28.0, 27.5 to 28.6)90.8 (85.2 to 94.4)0.9 (0.8 to 1.0)99.8 (99.6 to 99.9)112 (107 to 120)83320
44 (25.3, 19.2 to 32.5)13 687 (55.8, 55.1 to 56.4)74.7 (67.5 to 80.8)1.2 (1.0 to 1.4)99.7 99.6 to 99.8)83 (76 to 94)275651
70 (40.2, 33.0 to 47.9)16 584 (67.6, 67.0 to 68.2)59.8 (52.1 to 67.0)1.3 (1.1 to 1.6)99.6 (99.5 to 99.7)76 (67 to 89)449683
Diameter model73 (42.0, 34.6 to 49.7)18 162 (74.0, 73.4 to 74.6)58.0 (50.3 to 65.4)1.6 (1.3 to 1.9)99.6 (99.5 to 99.7)63 (55 to 75)351012124
Patz model71 (40.8, 33.5 to 48.5)18 052 (73.6, 72.8 to 73.9)59.2 (51.5 to 66.5)1.6 (1.3 to 1.9)99.6 (99.5 to 99.7)63 (55 to 75)34912124
PanCan model0 (0.0, 0.0 to 2.7)658 (2.7, 2.5 to 2.9)100.0 (97.3 to 100.0)0.7 (0.6 to 0.8)100.0 (99.3 to 100.0)137 (137 to 141)00000
9 (5.2, 2.5 to 9.9)4242 (17.3, 16.8 to 17.8)94.8 (90.1 to 97.5)0.8 (0.7 to 0.9)99.8 (99.6 to 99.9)123 (119 to 130)10350
17 (9.8, 6.0 to 15.4)6324 (25.8, 25.2 to 26.3)90.2 (84.6 to 94.0)0.9 (0.7 to 1.0)99.7 (99.6 to 99.8)116 (111 to 125)42470
44 (25.3, 19.2 to 32.5)12 901 (52.6, 51.9 to 53.2)74.7 (67.5 to 80.8)1.1 (0.9 to 1.3)99.7 (99.5 to 99.8)89 (82 to 101)177893
71 (40.8, 33.5 to 48.5)18 232 (74.3, 73.7 to 74.8)59.2 (51.5 to 66.5)1.6 (1.3 to 2.0)99.6 (99.5 to 99.7)61 (53 to 72)331111124
  • T1, first annual follow-up screening round; TNM, the American Joint Committee on Cancer’s seventh lung cancer TNM classification and staging system.