Model | Delayed diagnoses (%, 95% CI) | Scans avoided (%, 95% CI) | Sensitivity (%) (95% CI) | Positive predictive value (%) (95% CI) | Negative predictive value (%) (95% CI) | Number needed to diagnose (95% CI) | TNM I | TNM II | TNM III | TNM IV | Missing TNM |
No T1 scan | 174 (100.0) | 24 542 (100.0) | 0.0 | 100.0 | 0.0 | - | 100 | 22 | 21 | 22 | 9 |
Polynomial model | 0 (0.0, 0.0 to 2.7) | 2558 (10.4, 10.0 to 10.8) | 100.0 (97.3 to 100.0) | 0.8 (0.7 to 0.9) | 100.0 (99.8 to 100.0) | 126 (126 to 130) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8 (4.6, 2.2 to 9.2) | 7544 (30.7, 30.2 to 31.3) | 95.4 (90.8 to 97.8) | 1.0 (0.8 to 1.1) | 99.9 (99.8 to 100.0) | 102 (99 to 108) | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | |
17 (9.8, 6.0 to 15.4) | 10 947 (44.6, 44.0 to 45.2) | 90.2 (84.6 to 94.0) | 1.1 (1.0 to 1.3) | 99.8 (99.7 to 99.9) | 87 (82 to 93) | 9 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | |
44 (25.3, 19.2 to 32.5) | 16 710 (68.1, 67.5 to 68.7) | 74.7 (67.5 to 80.8) | 1.6 (1.4 to 1.9) | 99.7 (99.6 to 99.8) | 60 (55 to 68) | 21 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 4 | |
70 (40.2, 33.0 to 47.9) | 20 023 (81.6, 81.1 to 82.1) | 59.8 (52.1 to 67.0) | 2.2 (1.9 to 2.7) | 99.7 (99.6 to 99.7) | 43 (38 to 51) | 35 | 9 | 9 | 13 | 4 | |
Patient characteristics model | 0 (0.0, 0.0 to 2.7) | 318 (1.3, 1.2 to 1.4) | 100.0 (97.3 to 100.0) | 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) | 100.0 (98.5 to 100.0) | 139 (139 to 143) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
8 (4.6, 2.2 to 9.2) | 4154 (16.9, 16.5 to 17.4) | 95.4 (90.8 to 97.8) | 0.8 (0.7 to 0.9) | 99.8 (99.6 to 99.9) | 123 (119 to 130) | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | |
16 (9.2, 5.6 to 14.8) | 6875 (28.0, 27.5 to 28.6) | 90.8 (85.2 to 94.4) | 0.9 (0.8 to 1.0) | 99.8 (99.6 to 99.9) | 112 (107 to 120) | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | |
44 (25.3, 19.2 to 32.5) | 13 687 (55.8, 55.1 to 56.4) | 74.7 (67.5 to 80.8) | 1.2 (1.0 to 1.4) | 99.7 99.6 to 99.8) | 83 (76 to 94) | 27 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
70 (40.2, 33.0 to 47.9) | 16 584 (67.6, 67.0 to 68.2) | 59.8 (52.1 to 67.0) | 1.3 (1.1 to 1.6) | 99.6 (99.5 to 99.7) | 76 (67 to 89) | 44 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 3 | |
Diameter model | 73 (42.0, 34.6 to 49.7) | 18 162 (74.0, 73.4 to 74.6) | 58.0 (50.3 to 65.4) | 1.6 (1.3 to 1.9) | 99.6 (99.5 to 99.7) | 63 (55 to 75) | 35 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 4 |
Patz model | 71 (40.8, 33.5 to 48.5) | 18 052 (73.6, 72.8 to 73.9) | 59.2 (51.5 to 66.5) | 1.6 (1.3 to 1.9) | 99.6 (99.5 to 99.7) | 63 (55 to 75) | 34 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 4 |
PanCan model | 0 (0.0, 0.0 to 2.7) | 658 (2.7, 2.5 to 2.9) | 100.0 (97.3 to 100.0) | 0.7 (0.6 to 0.8) | 100.0 (99.3 to 100.0) | 137 (137 to 141) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
9 (5.2, 2.5 to 9.9) | 4242 (17.3, 16.8 to 17.8) | 94.8 (90.1 to 97.5) | 0.8 (0.7 to 0.9) | 99.8 (99.6 to 99.9) | 123 (119 to 130) | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0 | |
17 (9.8, 6.0 to 15.4) | 6324 (25.8, 25.2 to 26.3) | 90.2 (84.6 to 94.0) | 0.9 (0.7 to 1.0) | 99.7 (99.6 to 99.8) | 116 (111 to 125) | 4 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 0 | |
44 (25.3, 19.2 to 32.5) | 12 901 (52.6, 51.9 to 53.2) | 74.7 (67.5 to 80.8) | 1.1 (0.9 to 1.3) | 99.7 (99.5 to 99.8) | 89 (82 to 101) | 17 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 3 | |
71 (40.8, 33.5 to 48.5) | 18 232 (74.3, 73.7 to 74.8) | 59.2 (51.5 to 66.5) | 1.6 (1.3 to 2.0) | 99.6 (99.5 to 99.7) | 61 (53 to 72) | 33 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 4 |
T1, first annual follow-up screening round; TNM, the American Joint Committee on Cancer’s seventh lung cancer TNM classification and staging system.