Initial change* per year (95% CI) | Year of rate-change† | Subsequent change* per year (95% CI) | Direction of change‡ | Estimate in 2014§ | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Median CRP (mg/L) | 2.68 (0.18 to 5.17) | 2009 | −4.60 (−6.48 to −2.72) | ↑ ↓ | 94 |

Median urea (mmol/L) | 0.12 (0.02 to 0.21) | 2004 | −0.01 (−0.05 to 0.03) | ↑ ↔ | 7.8 |

Median neutrophils (×10^{9}/L) | 0.04 (−0.02 to 0.10) | 2011 | −0.16 (−0.28 to −0.04) | ↔ ↓ | 9.7 |

Proportion CRP >20 mg/L | −0.1 (−0.8 to 0.6) | – | ↔ | 0.84 | |

Proportion CRP >100 mg/L | 1.0 (−1.1 to 3.1) | 2009 | −2.3 (−3.8 to −0.7) | ↔ ↓ | 0.48 |

Proportion urea >7 mmol/L | 0.5 (−0.3 to 1.3) | – | ↔ | 0.58 | |

Proportion neutrophils <2 or >7×10^{9}/L | −0.1 (−0.8 to 0.6) | – | ↔ | 0.75 |

Median values modelled using piecewise median regression, all other trends using piecewise linear Poisson regression.

*Absolute change in median values, percentage change in rate trend for proportions outside thresholds (out of those which had a test).

†Allowing change in trend over time if significant improvement over linear trend alone (p<0.05), with year of the change point chosen by profile likelihood8 (see Methods).

‡Single arrows represent direction of change over the whole time period; paired arrows represent direction and relative size of change in the periods before and after the year when data suggested trend in rates changed (as in †).

§Proportion of admissions/median value, as estimated by the best-fitting model as presented in the table.

CRP, C reactive protein.