Probability of best therapy, SUCRA values and ranking of therapy
| Probability of being the best therapy (%) | SUCRA value (%) | Median ranking (95% CrI) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Treatment | CFB in FEV1 (L)—3 months | ||
| Placebo | 0 | 0 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0 | 33.4 | 3 (3–3) |
| LAMA | 0 | 66.6 | 2 (2–2) |
| LABA/LAMA | 100 | 100 | 1 (1–1) |
| Treatment | CFB in FEV1 (L)—6 months | ||
| Placebo | 0 | 0 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0 | 33.6 | 3 (3–3) |
| LAMA | 0 | 66.4 | 2 (2–2) |
| LABA/LAMA | 100 | 100 | 1 (1–1) |
| CFB in FEV1 (L)—12 months | |||
| Placebo | 0.1 | 0.5 | 3 (3–3) |
| LABA | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| LAMA | 2.1 | 50.7 | 2 (2–2) |
| LABA/LAMA | 97.7 | 98.8 | 1 (1–1) |
| CFB in SGRQ—3 months | |||
| Placebo | 0 | 0 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0 | 49.0 | 2 (2–3) |
| LAMA | 0 | 51.0 | 3 (2–3) |
| LAMA/LABA | 100 | 100 | 1 (1–1) |
| CFB in SGRQ—6 months | |||
| Placebo | 0 | 0.1 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0.6 | 52.2 | 2 (2–3) |
| LAMA | 0.1 | 47.9 | 3 (2–3) |
| LAMA/LABA | 99.2 | 99.7 | 1 (1–2) |
| SGRQ responder*—6 months | |||
| Placebo | 0 | 0.4 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0.4 | 67.2 | 2 (2–3) |
| LAMA | 0 | 36.8 | 3 (2–3) |
| LAMA/LABA | 99.5 | 95.6 | 1 (1–2) |
| TDI—3 months | |||
| Placebo | 0 | 0 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0 | 55.7 | 2 (2–3) |
| LAMA | 0 | 44.3 | 3 (2–3) |
| LABA/LAMA | 99.9 | 100 | 1 (1–1) |
| TDI—6 months | |||
| Placebo | 0 | 0 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0 | 43.0 | 3 (2–3) |
| LAMA | 0 | 57.0 | 2 (2–3) |
| LABA/LAMA | 99.4 | 100 | 1 (1–1) |
| TDI responder†—6 months | |||
| Placebo | 0 | 0 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0 | 44.2 | 3 (2–3) |
| LAMA | 0.1 | 55.8 | 2 (2–3) |
| LABA/LAMA | 99.9 | 100 | 1 (1–1) |
| Moderate-to-severe exacerbations | |||
| Placebo | 0 | 2.6 | 4 (4–4) |
| LABA | 0.2 | 34.3 | 3 (2–3) |
| LAMA | 2.9 | 66.5 | 2 (1–3) |
| LAMA/LABA | 97.0 | 99.0 | 1 (1–2) |
| Severe exacerbations | |||
| Placebo | 4.6 | 10.2 | 4 (1–4) |
| LABA | 37.4 | 66.0 | 2 (1–4) |
| LAMA | 7.5 | 44.8 | 3 (1–4) |
| LAMA/LABA | 50.5 | 79.0 | 1 (1–3) |
| Mortality | |||
| Placebo | 84.8 | 91.4 | 1 (1–4) |
| LABA | 7.6 | 41.3 | 3 (1–4) |
| LAMA | 0.6 | 14.5 | 4 (2–4) |
| LAMA/LABA | 7.1 | 52.7 | 3 (1–4) |
| Total serious adverse events | |||
| Placebo | 62.7 | 76.4 | 1 (1–4) |
| LABA | 6.6 | 23.6 | 4 (1–4) |
| LAMA | 26.0 | 64.7 | 2 (1–4) |
| LAMA/LABA | 4.7 | 35.2 | 3 (1–4) |
| Cardiac serious adverse events | |||
| Placebo | 89.6 | 94.7 | 1 (1–3) |
| LABA | 2.1 | 22.3 | 4 (2–4) |
| LAMA | 1.6 | 28.3 | 3 (2–4) |
| LAMA/LABA | 6.7 | 54.6 | 2 (1–4) |
| Dropout due to adverse event | |||
| Placebo | 22.7 | 42.8 | 3 (1–4) |
| LABA | 11.7 | 29.6 | 3 (1–4) |
| LAMA | 42.0 | 70.0 | 2 (1–4) |
| LAMA/LABA | 23.5 | 57.6 | 2 (1–4) |
*Defined as a subject with a SGRQ score of 4 units below baseline or lower.
†Defined as a subject with a TDI score of 1 unit or more.
CFB, change from baseline; CrI, credible interval; LABA, long-acting β-agonist; LAMA, long-acting muscarinic antagonist; N/A, not applicable; SGRQ, St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire; SUCRA, surface under the cumulative ranking curve; TDI, Transitional Dyspnoea Index.