Net benefit–harm index for treatment of COPD with roflumilast
| Net benefit–harm index* per 10 000 patients treated over 1 year by patient profiles | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type of analysis | Patients’ projected 1-year risk of having ≥1 moderate or severe COPD exacerbations | |||||||||||
| 30% | 60% | 90% | ||||||||||
| Men | Women | Men | Women | Men | Women | |||||||
| Age <65 | Age ≥65 | Age <65 | Age ≥65 | Age <65 | Age ≥65 | Age <65 | Age ≥65 | Age <65 | Age ≥65 | Age <65 | Age ≥65 | |
| Analysis I: Equal weights | −3221 (0.0%)† | −3192 (0.0%) | −3246 (0.0%) | −3225 (0.0%) | −3125 (0.0%) | −3097 (0.0%) | −3150 (0.0%) | −3129 (0.0%) | −3088 (0.0%) | −3059 (0.0%) | −3112 (0.0%) | −3092 (0.0%) |
| Analysis II: Weights based on importance of outcomes | −477 (0.0%) | −473 (0.0%) | −481 (0.0%) | −478 (0.0%) | −430 (0.0%) | −426 (0.0%) | −433 (0.0%) | −430 (0.0%) | −411 (0.0%) | −407 (0.0%) | −414 (0.0%) | −411 (0.0%) |
| Analysis III (main analysis): Weights based on importance and co-occurrence of harm outcomes | −195 (0.0%) | −194 (0.0%) | −197 (0.0%) | −196 (0.0%) | −148 (0.0%) | −146 (0.0%) | −149 (0.0%) | −148 (0.0%) | −129 (0.0%) | −127 (0.0%) | −130 (0.0%) | −129 (0.0%) |
| Patients’ projected 1-year risk of having ≥1 severe COPD exacerbations | ||||||||||||
| 10% | 20% | 30% | ||||||||||
| Sensitivity analysis focusing on severe exacerbations | −140 (0.0%) | −139 (0.0%) | −141 (0.0%) | −140 (0.0%) | −16 (37.6%) | −16 (37.5%) | −16 (37.0%) | −16 (37.1%) | 85 (86.9%) | 85 (87.0%) | 86 (86.9%) | 85 (87.0%) |
*Negative values of the index = roflumilast is harmful (harms outweigh benefits); positive values of the index = roflumilast is beneficial (benefits outweigh harms).
†The numbers in parentheses are the probability that the index is positive (the probability that roflumilast is beneficial).