Table 1

 Base case values of probabilities of exacerbations and hospital admissions

Base case value (95% CI)
FPPlacebo
FP, fluticasone propionate.
Probability of rapid recurrent exacerbations0.049 (0.023 to 0.102)0.215 (0.151 to 0.296)
Probability of further exacerbations when returned to open FP0.833 (0.436 to 0.970)0.385 (0.224 to 0.575)
Probability of at least one hospital admission in patients who continue to experience exacerbations following use of open FP0.400 (0.118 to 0.769)0.300 (0.108 to 0.603)
Probability of at least one hospital admission during the 6 month trial period in patients free of exacerbations following use of open FP0.000 (0.000 to 0.793)0.063 (0.011 to 0.283)
Probability of at least one exacerbation in patients not experiencing recurrent exacerbations0.445 (0.358 to 0.535)0.453 (0.356 to 0.553)
Probability of at least one hospital admission in patients not experiencing recurrent exacerbations0.135 (0.067 to 0.253)0.116 (0.051 to 0.245)