Table 5

Predictive potential of severity rules for mortality

SensitivitySpecificityPPVNPVOverall accuracy
Data are presented as number (%) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).
PPV = positive predicted value; NPV = negative predicted value.
Modified ATS rule44/47 (94%)601/647 (93%)44/90 (49%)601/604 (99.5%)645/694 (93%)
(82.5 to 98.7)(90.6 to 94.7)(38.2 to 59.7)(98.5 to 99.9)(90.8 to 94.7)
BTS I20/44 (46%)534/612 (87%)20/98 (20%)534/558 (96%)554/656 (85%)
(30.4 to 61.2)(84.4 to 89.8)(12.9 to 29.7)(93.7 to 97.2)(81.4 to 87.1)
Original derivation cohort521/24 (88%)322/409 (79%)21/108 (19%)322/325 (99%)343/433 (79%)
(67.6 to 97.3)(74.4 to 82.6)(12.5 to 28.2)(97.4 to 99.8)(75.1 to 83.0)
BTS II25/47 (53%)537/644 (83%)25/132 (19%)537/559 (96%)562/691 (81%)
(38.1 to 67.9)(80.3 to 86.2)(12.6 to 26.7)(94.1 to 97.5)(78.2 to 84.2)
Original derivation cohort59/23 (39%)386/411 (94%)9/34 (27%)386/400 (97%)395/434 (91%)
(19.7 to 61.5)(91.2 to 96.0)(12.9 to 44.4)(94.2 to 98.1)(87.9 to 93.5)
Modified BTS rule21/41 (51%)440/551 (80%)21/132 (16%)440/460 (96%)461/592 (78%)
(35.1 to 67.1)(76.3 to 83.1)(10.1 to 23.3)(93.4 to 97.3)(74.3 to 81.2)
Sepsis41/46 (89%)141/635 (22%)41/535 (8%)141/146 (97%)182/681 (27%)
(76.4 to 96.4)(19.0 to 25.6)(5.6 to 10.3)(92.2 to 98.9)(23.4 to 30.2)
Severe sepsis39/44 (89%)366/526 (70%)39/199 (20%)366/371 (99%)405/570 (71%)
(75.4 to 96.2)(65.5 to 73.5)(14.3 to 25.8)(96.9 to 99.6)(67.1 to 74.7)
Septic shock38/47 (81%)630/647 (97%)38/55 (69%)630/639 (99%)668/694 (96%)
(66.7 to 90.9)(95.8 to 98.5)(55.2 to 0.9)(97.3 to 99.4)(94.6 to 97.5)