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  • Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence in Great Britain: results from 1 960 242 users of the COVID-19 Symptoms Study app

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Geo-social gradients in predicted COVID-19 prevalence in Great Britain: results from 1 960 242 users of the COVID-19 Symptoms Study app
  1. Ruth C E Bowyer1,
  2. Thomas Varsavsky2,
  3. Ellen J Thompson1,
  4. Carole H Sudre2,3,
  5. Benjamin A K Murray2,
  6. Maxim B Freidin1,
  7. Darioush Yarand1,
  8. Sajaysurya Ganesh4,
  9. Joan Capdevila4,
  10. Elco Bakker4,
  11. M Jorge Cardoso2,
  12. Richard Davies4,
  13. Jonathan Wolf4,
  14. Tim D Spector1,
  15. Sebastien Ourselin2,
  16. Claire J Steves1,
  17. Cristina Menni1
  1. 1 Twin Research, King's College London, London, UK
  2. 2 School of Biomedical Engineering & Imaging Sciences, King's College London, London, UK
  3. 3 MRC Unit for Lifelong Health and Ageing, University College London, London, UK
  4. 4 Zoe Global Limited, London, UK
  1. Correspondence to Dr Cristina Menni, Twin Research, King's College London, London, UK; cristina.menni{at}kcl.ac.uk

Abstract

Understanding the geographical distribution of COVID-19 through the general population is key to the provision of adequate healthcare services. Using self-reported data from 1 960 242 unique users in Great Britain (GB) of the COVID-19 Symptom Study app, we estimated that, concurrent to the GB government sanctioning lockdown, COVID-19 was distributed across GB, with evidence of ‘urban hotspots’. We found a geo-social gradient associated with predicted disease prevalence suggesting urban areas and areas of higher deprivation are most affected. Our results demonstrate use of self-reported symptoms data to provide focus on geographical areas with identified risk factors.

  • clinical epidemiology
  • infection control
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

https://doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-215119

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    • Twitter @mjorgecardoso

    • RCEB and TV contributed equally.

    • CJS and CM contributed equally.

    • Contributors Conceived and designed the experiments: CJS, TDS, SO and CM; analysed the data: RCB and TV. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: MF, CHS, BM, MF, DY, SG, JC, ET, EB, MJC, RD and JW wrote the manuscript: RCB, TV and CM; revised the manuscript: all.

    • Funding Zoe provided in kind support for all aspects of building, running and supporting the app and service to all users worldwide. The Department of Twin Research is funded by the Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, European Union, Chronic Disease Research Foundation (CDRF), Zoe Global Ltd and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR)-funded BioResource, Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre based at Guy’s and St Thomas’ NHS Foundation Trust in partnership with King’s College London. CM is funded by the Chronic Disease Research Foundation and by the MRC Aim-Hy project grant. CHS is an Alzheimer’s Society Junior Fellowship AS-JF-17-011; SO and MJC are funded by the Wellcome/EPSRC Centre for Medical Engineering (WT203148/Z/16/Z), Wellcome Flagship Programme (WT213038/Z/18/Z).

    • Map disclaimer The depiction of boundaries on this map does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of BMJ (or any member of its group) concerning the legal status of any country, territory, jurisdiction or area or of its authorities. This map is provided without any warranty of any kind, either express or implied.

    • Competing interests TDS is a consultant to Zoe Global Ltd ('Zoe'). SG, JC, EB, RD and JW are or have been employees of Zoe Global Limited. Other authors have no conflict of interest to declare.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

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