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Respiratory epidemiology
Original research
Effect of public health interventions on COVID-19 cases: an observational study
  1. Weihong Qiu1,2,
  2. Heng He3,
  3. Peng Zhang4,
  4. Wenwen Yang4,
  5. Tingming Shi5,
  6. Xing Wang1,2,
  7. Ailian Chen1,2,
  8. Li Xie1,2,
  9. Meng Yang1,2,
  10. Dongming Wang1,2,
  11. Mingyan Li4,
  12. Weihong Chen1,2
  1. 1 Department of Occupational & Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China
  2. 2 Key Laboratory of Environment and Health, Ministry of Education & Ministry of Environmental Protection, and State Key Laboratory of Environmental Health (Incubating), School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
  3. 3 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
  4. 4 Institute of Preventive Medicine Information, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei, China
  5. 5 Division of Human Resources, Science and Education, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, China
  1. Correspondence to Professor Weihong Chen, Department of Occupational and Environmental Health, School of Public Health, Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China; wchen{at}mails.tjmu.edu.cn; Dr Mingyan Li, Institute of Preventive Medicine Information, Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Wuhan, Hubei, China; hbcdc_limingyan{at}163.com

Abstract

Background As the epidemic of COVID-19 is gradually controlled in China, a summary of epidemiological characteristics and interventions may help control its global spread.

Methods Data for COVID-19 cases in Hubei Province (capital, Wuhan) was extracted until 7 March 2020. The spatiotemporal distribution of the epidemic in four periods (before 10 January, 10–22 January, 23 January–6 February and 7 February–7 March) was evaluated, and the impacts of interventions were observed.

Results Among 67 706 COVID-19 cases, 52 111 (76.97%) were aged 30–69 years old, and 34 680 (51.22%) were women. The average daily attack rates (95% CI) were 0.5 (0.3 to 0.7), 14.2 (13.2 to 15.1), 45.7 (44.0 to 47.5) and 8.6 (7.8 to 9.3) cases per 106 people in four periods, and the harmonic means (95% CI) of doubling times were 4.28 (4.01 to 4.55), 3.87 (3.78 to 3.98), 5.40 (4.83 to 6.05) and 45.56 (39.70 to 52.80) days. Compared with the first period, daily attack rates rose rapidly in the second period. In the third period, 14 days after 23 January, the daily average attack rate in and outside Wuhan declined by 33.8% and 48.0%; the doubling times increased by 95.0% and 133.2%. In the four periods, 14 days after 7 February, the daily average attack rate in and outside Wuhan decreased by 79.1% and 95.2%; the doubling times increased by 79.2% and 152.0%.

Conclusions The public health interventions were associated with a reduction in COVID-19 cases in Hubei Province, especially in districts outside of Wuhan.

  • infection control
  • clinical epidemiology

Data availability statement

No data are available.

This article is made freely available for use in accordance with BMJ’s website terms and conditions for the duration of the covid-19 pandemic or until otherwise determined by BMJ. You may use, download and print the article for any lawful, non-commercial purpose (including text and data mining) provided that all copyright notices and trade marks are retained.

https://bmj.com/coronavirus/usage

https://doi.org/10.1136/thoraxjnl-2020-215086

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    Data availability statement

    No data are available.

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    Footnotes

    • WQ, HH, PZ, WY and TS contributed equally.

    • Contributors WQ and HH conducted data analysis, interpreted the results and wrote the manuscript. PZ, WY and TS collected data. XW, AC, LX and MY conducted data analysis and interpreted the results. All authors reviewed the manuscript. ML and WC are the guarantors of this work and have full access to all the data in the study and take responsibility for the integrity of the data and the accuracy of the data analysis.

    • Funding This work was supported by the Major Research Programme of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (91843302).

    • Map disclaimer The depiction of boundaries on this map does not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of BMJ (or any member of its group) concerning the legal status of any country, territory, jurisdiction or area or of its authorities. This map is provided without any warranty of any kind, either express or implied.

    • Competing interests None declared.

    • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

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