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P282 Comparitive use of nhanes III, ECCS and GLI prediction equations in determining spirometric indices and suitability for anti-fibrotic therapy in patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis
  1. I Cliff,
  2. A Ali,
  3. M Spiteri,
  4. H Stone
  1. Department of Respiratory Medicine, University Hospitals of North Midlands, Royal Stoke University Hospital, Stoke on Trent, UK


Introduction Prediction equations are used to assess disease severity and prognosis in respiratory disease; globally most laboratories utilise ECCS or NHANES III equations. The Global Lung Initiative (GLI) produced reference ranges for spirometry that are multi-ethnic and applicable for patients upto the age of 95. The choice of which equation to use becomes crucial in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis [IPF] patients, in whom prescription of currently available anti-fibrotic agents, Nintedanib and Pirfenidone is dependent on a forced vital capacity [FVC] between 50 and 80% of predicted in England and Wales (Scotland only restriction is FVC above 80% predicted).

Methods Spirometric data recorded on 132 IPF patients were extracted from our BTS ILD Registry database. Values for FVC% predicted were calculated using the ECCS, NHANES III and GLI equations and compared to determine patient eligibility for anti-fibrotic treatment in line with published NICE Guidance.

Results Data on 132 consecutive patients is presented in Table 1. This demonstrates the FVC% predicted when the 3 separate equations are used. At our centre, where ECCS is routinely used to calculate FVC% predicted, 62 patients (47%) of patients had an FVC above the upper limit of the treatment threshold of 80%. Of this group, 8 had evidence of more than 25% emphysematous change on their HRCT scans.

Abstract P282 Table 1

Demographic data of the analysed cohort 132 patients with IPF, showing the proportional variation across the 3 prediction equations for determining eligibility for anti-fibrotic treatments using NICE cut-off ranges. Data are presented as mean values with standard deviations in parentheses

Conclusions Using ECCS, 50% of patients met the NICE criteria for anti-fibrotic treatment. When NHANES III and GLI are used, patient eligibility for treatment increases to 61% and 59% respectively. Interestingly both the NHANES and GLI equations decrease the % predicted, and those patients that are just above the 80% cut off when ECCS is used become eligible for treatment just by using alternative prediction equations. The NICE Guidance does not specify which equation to use when assessing patients; in our patient cohort, the NHANES III or GLI would allow more patients to meet NICE eligibility for treatment. These data question, the use of predictive FVC cut-offs in prescribing anti-fibrotic treatments in a progressive lung disease without providing a national reference standard, especially when the particular prediction equation used could significantly impact on patients’ eligibility for treatment.

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