Background Acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease have a significant negative impact on both patients and healthcare systems. Currently, there are no physiological biomarkers that effectively monitor clinical change or predict respiratory readmission. Acute exacerbations impose a change in the respiratory muscle load-capacity-drive relationship. It was hypothesised that lack of a fall in neural respiratory drive would identify patients at risk of treatment failure and early hospital readmission.

Methods An observational study was performed at two UK teaching hospitals. Routine clinical physiological parameters and neural respiratory drive index (NRDI), calculated as the product of second intercostal space parasternal electromyography (EMG) activity normalised to the peak EMG activity during a maximum inspiratory sniff manoeuvre and respiratory rate, were recorded daily from admission to discharge.

Results 30 acutely unwell patients of mean (SD) age 72 (10) years, forced expiratory volume in 1 s 0.60 (1.65) l, NRDI 455 (263) AU and median length of stay 6 days were studied. Changes in NRDI correlated with changes in Borg score (r=+0.60; p<0.001), discriminated between patients deemed to have clinically improved rather than deteriorated (mean difference 339 AU; 95% CI 234 to 444; p<0.001) and identified those patients readmitted within 14 days (mean difference 203 AU; 95% CI 39 to 366; p=0.017).

Conclusions NRDI is a feasible clinical physiological parameter in patients with an acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and can provide useful information on treatment response and risk of readmission.