Abstract

Background: Recent studies have indicated long-term effects on mortality of particulate and sulphur dioxide (SO₂) pollution, but uncertainties remain over the size of any effects, potential latency and generalisability.

Methods: A small area study was performed across electoral wards in Great Britain of mean annual black smoke (BS) and SO₂ concentrations (from 1966) and subsequent all-cause and cause-specific mortality using random effect models within a Bayesian framework adjusted for social deprivation and urban/rural classification. Different latencies and changes in associations over time were assessed.

Results: Significant associations were found between BS and SO₂ concentrations and mortality. The effects were stronger for respiratory illness than other causes of mortality for the most recent exposure periods (shorter latency times) and most recent mortality period (lower pollutant concentrations). In pooled analysis across four sequential 4 year mortality periods (1982–98), adjusted excess relative risk for respiratory mortality was 3.6% (95% CI 2.6% to 4.5%) per 10 μg/m³ BS and 13.2% (95% CI 11.5% to 14.9%) per 10 ppb SO₂, and in the most recent period (1994–8) it was 19.3% (95% CI 5.1% to 35.7%) and 21.7% (95% CI 2.9% to 38.5%), respectively.

Conclusions: These findings add to the evidence that air pollution has long-term effects on mortality and point to continuing public health risks even at the relatively lower levels of BS and SO₂ that now occur. They therefore have importance for policies on public health protection through regulation and control of air pollution.