Strategies for containing a global influenza pandemic

Vaccine. 2006 Nov 10;24(44-46):6751-5. doi: 10.1016/j.vaccine.2006.05.079. Epub 2006 Jun 12.

Abstract

Mathematical modelling provides useful insight into the geographic and temporal spread of pandemic influenza. It has been recently used to assess the ability to stop a pandemic at a very early stage. Here, we model the global diffusion of pandemic influenza and the impact of available preventive and control measures. We refined a published SEIR deterministic model of disease dynamics within 52 cities interconnected via air transport to simulate the impact of five interventions in a variety of scenarios: vaccination, case isolation, therapeutic and prophylactic antiviral treatment, and air traffic reduction. The impact of these measures was assessed on the spread of a potential pandemic strain profile, with an average attack-rate of 26%, a case-fatality rate of 2.5% and a residual immunity of 25%. Our analysis highlighted the importance of: (1) a global perspective for dealing with pandemic risks; (2) the time factor and, hence, the importance of surveillance systems; (3) the complementary role of available control measures. Results provide general guidance for the issues of concern to public-health decision-makers: when to set up interventions, where, and at which administrative levels.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Antiviral Agents / therapeutic use
  • Communicable Disease Control / methods*
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Outbreaks / prevention & control*
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology*
  • Influenza, Human / transmission
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Travel / statistics & numerical data

Substances

  • Antiviral Agents