Demographics and candidate predictors by cohort
| Derivation | Internal validation | External validation | p Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of patients, n | 824 | 802 | 791 | N/A |
| Sociodemographic details | ||||
| Female, % | 54.2 | 56.4 | 51.5 | 0.14 |
| Age* | 72.3 (9.9) | 73.1 (10.2) | 72.2 (10.4) | 0.14 |
| Institutional care, % | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.0 | 0.013 |
| Cigarette pack-years, n† | 45 (32–60) | 40 (30–56) | 40 (30–60) | <0.001 |
| Preadmission details | ||||
| eMRCD† | 4 (3–5a) | 5a (4–5a) | 5a (4–5a) | <0.001 |
| One or more admissions previous year, % | 48.2 | 40.5 | 56.6 | <0.001 |
| Weight loss >5%, % | 21.6 | 11.9 | 18.5 | <0.001 |
| FEV1 %predicted* | 44.5 (18.1) | 48.4 (19.2) | 43.0 (16.9) | <0.001 |
| Long-term oxygen, % | 11.3 | 15.6 | 17.3 | 0.002 |
| Long-term prednisolone, % | 8.7 | 7.4 | 7.8 | 0.58 |
| Left ventricular failure, % | 7.4 | 10.7 | 12.3 | 0.003 |
| Cor pulmonale, % | 9.8 | 6.1 | 8.0 | 0.022 |
| Diabetes, % | 14.7 | 11.6 | 14.3 | 0.13 |
| Chronic kidney disease, % | 5.7 | 11.3 | 13.4 | <0.001 |
| Cerebrovascular disease, % | 12.6 | 12.7 | 11.0 | 0.52 |
| Atrial fibrillation, % | 10.9 | 16.0 | 15.8 | 0.003 |
| Asthma, % | 5.1 | 7.2 | 10.2 | <0.001 |
| Cognitive impairment, % | 4.6 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 0.58 |
| Admission details | ||||
| Length of stay, n† | 6 (4–11) | 5 (3–10) | 4 (2–8) | <0.001 |
| Radiographic consolidation, % | 29.9 | 29.7 | 23.0 | 0.004 |
| Ineffective cough, % | 9.3 | 9.6 | 3.4 | <0.001 |
| pH <7.35, % | 20.3 | 15.0 | 14.5 | 0.14 |
| Non-invasive ventilation treatment, % | 17.8 | 13.7 | 12.6 | 0.011 |
*Mean (SD).
†Median (IQR).
p Value compares proportions, means and median values across all three groups.
eMRCD, extended MRC dyspnoea score.