Number of migrants who would need to be tested and treated for latent infection with Mycobacterium tuberculosis to prevent one active TB case developing in the 5 years following arrival into the UK in 2005/6
| Country (in-country TB incident rate per 100 000)* | Number of migrants ≤35 years | Number of TB cases ≤40 years reported in 2005/2006–2009/2010 | Numbers needed to prevent one case | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry in 2005/2006† | LTBI‡ | Entry in 2005/2006 | Preventable cases§ | Test (lowest-highest¶) | Treat (lowest-highest¶) | |
| Nigeria (133) | 15 000 | 4,200 | 127 | 59 | 254 (127–523) | 71 (36–146) |
| India (185) | 92 000 | 18 400 | 1073 | 498 | 185 (109–338) | 37 (20–61) |
| Uganda (209)** | 1000 | 280 | 25 | 12 | 83 (25–224) | 23 (7–63) |
| Bangladesh (225) | 18 000 | 3600 | 170 | 79 | 228 (129–434) | 46 (26–87) |
| Pakistan (231) | 42 000 | 8400 | 532 | 247 | 170 (85–349) | 34 (17–70) |
| Philippines (275) | 16 000 | 2880 | 69 | 32 | 500 (177–1176) | 90 (32–212) |
| Somalia (286) | 3000 | 840 | 406 | 188 | 16 (6–37) | 4 (1–7) |
| Kenya (298) | 3000 | 840 | 39 | 18 | 167 (63–390) | 47 (13–78) |
| Zimbabwe (633)** | 7000 | 1960 | 87 | 40 | 175 (38–467) | 49 (11–131) |
| South Africa (981) | 41 000 | 11 480 | 72 | 33 | 1242 (643–2492) | 348 (180–698) |
*Incountry TB rate estimated by WHO (Global tuberculosis control: WHO report 2011).
†Number of long-term migrants rounded to the nearest thousand, estimated from the International Passenger Survey. Source: Office for National Statistics.
‡Based on estimates of interferon-γ release assays positivity by world region from Pareek et al.3
§Preventable cases—adjusting the number of TB cases for test sensitivity plus preventive therapy efficacy and adherence.
¶Highest and lowest estimates using the upper and lower range of sensitivity, efficacy and adherence estimates and the 95% CI of the number of migrants.
**Data from the International Passenger Survey are thought to be unreliable (standard error >35%).
LTBI, latent tuberculosis infection; TB, tuberculosis.