Incidence of pneumonia hospitalisations and pneumonia-associated mortality among people aged ≥18 years before and after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, Kesennuma City, Miyagi, Japan
| Pre-disaster period (1 March 2010–10 March 2011)* | Post-disaster period (11 March 2011–30 June 2011)* | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pop.† | N‡ | Weekly incidence rate§ (95% CI) | Pop.† | N‡ | Weekly incidence rate§ (95% CI) | Rate ratio (95% CI)¶ | |
| Pneumonia hospitalisations | |||||||
| Total | 63365 | 305 | 9.2 (8 to 10.4) | 61104 | 208 | 38.3 (28.6 to 48) | 5.7 (3.9 to 8.4) |
| Age category (years) | |||||||
| 18–49 | 23354 | 14 | 1 (0.4 to 1.5) | 22291 | 6 | 3.6 (-0.4 to 7.7) | 10 (1.9 to 54.3) |
| 50–64 | 17590 | 24 | 2.5 (1.3 to 3.6) | 17245 | 18 | 7.3 (0.6 to 14) | 6.1 (1.5 to 24.7) |
| 65–79 | 15803 | 85 | 10.6 (8.2 to 13.1) | 15241 | 62 | 62.6 (37.5 to 87.7) | 6.2 (3.3 to 11.5) |
| 80+ | 6618 | 182 | 52.3 (43.8 to 60.8) | 6327 | 122 | 193.3 (129.1 to 257.5) | 5.2 (3.2 to 8.5) |
| Residence location | |||||||
| Home | 62239 | 262 | 8.1 (7 to 9.2) | 54460 | 111 | 21 (12.9 to 29) | 2.7 (1.7 to 4.4) |
| Nursing home | 1126 | 43 | 57 (38.6 to 75.5) | 796 | 38 | 882.8 (481.3 to 1284.3) | 28.2 (11.7 to 68) |
| Evacuation shelter | – | – | – | 5848 | 59 | 328.7 (190.8 to 466.7) | 10.2 (6.2 to 16.9) |
| Pneumonia-associated deaths | |||||||
| Total | 63365 | 55 | 1.6 (1.2 to 2.1) | 61104 | 49 | 12.8 (7.5 to 18.1) | 8.9 (4.4 to 17.8) |
| Age category (years) | |||||||
| 18–79 | 56747 | 13 | 0.4 (0.2 to 0.7) | 54777 | 12 | 8.7 (3 to 14.4) | 18.6 (5.3 to 64.9) |
| 80- | 6618 | 42 | 12 (8.5 to 15.5) | 6327 | 37 | 66.3 (32.8 to 99.8) | 6.7 (3 to 14.8) |
| Residence location | |||||||
| Home | 62239 | 46 | 1.4 (1 to 1.8) | 54460 | 27 | 7.1 (2.7 to 11.5) | 4.8 (2 to 11.2) |
| Nursing home | 1126 | 9 | 12.4 (4.5 to 20.3) | 796 | 17 | 555.2 (216.6 to 893.7) | 40.6 (9.1 to 180.8) |
| Evacuation shelter | – | – | – | 5848 | 5 | 80.6 (0.2 to 160.9) | 11.6 (3.7 to 36.2) |
*The pre-disaster and post-disaster cases were categorised according to the date of onset. The near-drowning-related cases were excluded.
†Population in 28 February 2011 for the pre-disaster period and in 31 May 2011 for the post-disaster period. The population in each residential category reflects the period average. Data provided by Kesennuma City Hall.
‡Number of patients living in Kesennuma.
§Per 100 000 people. Weekly incidence rates were estimated using segmented generalised linear Poisson regression models allowing for time trends and the change in the population size.
¶Rate ratios were estimated using segmented generalised linear Poisson regression models. Rate ratios for evacuation shelter residents were estimated using the overall pre-disaster incidence as a reference.