Table 5 Modelled effect of changing diagnostic strategy on the antibiotic load experienced by patients with suspected VAP
BAL mean (95% CI)Qualitative ETA mean (95% CI)
Positive culture “antibiotic days”278 (133 to 424)1104 (978 to1219)
Negative culture “antibiotic days”505 (435 to 574)21 (6 to 38)
Total783 (568 to 998)1125 (984 to 1257)
“Antibiotic days” per patient7.1 (5.2 to 9.1)10.2 (8.9 to 11.4)
  • Data obtained by combining the modelled effect on reported VAP incidence in table 4, with antibiotic load data from table 3.

  • The numbers in parentheses are those estimated using the 95% CIs from fig 1.

  • BAL, bronchoalveolar lavage; ETA, endotracheal aspirate; VAP, ventilator-associated pneumonia.