Predictive value of scores for combined outcomes (death and/or ICU admission*)
| Severity score | Sensitivity(95% CI) | Specificity(95% CI) | PPV(95% CI) | NPV(95% CI) (%) | Area under ROC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| *Where ICU is defined as requirement for invasive or non-invasive ventilation and/or inotropic support not judged to be due to another cause. | |||||
| †Excluding nursing home residents, patients aged >90 years, and patients considered unsuitable for aggressive treatment at presentation (due to advanced irreversible co-morbidities), n = 311. | |||||
| All patients | |||||
| PSI class V | 55.5 (41.4 to 69.1) | 82.6 (78.1 to 86.5) | 34.1 (24.3 to 44.9) | 92.0 (88.3 to 94.8) | 0.71 (0.63 to 0.78) |
| PSI class IV+V | 90.7 (79.7 to 96.9) | 49.1 (43.6 to 54.6) | 22.3 (17.0 to 28.4) | 97.0 (93.2 to 99.0) | 0.71 (0.63 to 0.78) |
| CURB (⩾2) | 85.2 (72.8 to 93.0) | 59.8 (54.4 to 65.0) | 25.5 (19.3 to 32.5) | 96.1 (92.5 to 98.3) | 0.80 (0.74 to 0.85) |
| CURB-65 (⩾3) | 70.9 (57.1 to 82.4) | 68.8 (63.6 to 73.7) | 27.1 (20.0 to 35.1) | 93.5 (89.7 to 96.3) | 0.76 (0.70 to 0.82) |
| Modified BTS | 94.4 (84.6 to 98.8) | 52.4 (46.6 to 59.7) | 24.3 (18.6 to 30.6) | 98.3 (95.1 to 99.6) | 0.73 (0.69 to 0.77) |
| rATS | 57.4 (43.2 to 70.7) | 88.6 (84.7 to 91.8) | 44.9 (32.9 to 57.3) | 92.8 (89.3 to 95.3) | 0.73 (0.65 to 0.79) |
| Excluding elderly group† | |||||
| PSI class V | 47.2 (30.4 to 64.5) | 79.8 (75.2 to 83.8) | 19.1 (11.5 to 28.8) | 93.7 (90.4 to 96.2) | 0.76 (0.70 to 0.81) |
| PSI class IV+V | 83.3 (67.2 to 93.6) | 46.6 (41.3 to 51.9) | 13.6 (9.4 to 18.9) | 96.5 (92.6 to 98.7) | 0.76 (0.70 to 0.81) |
| CURB (⩾2) | 83.3 (67.2 to 93.6) | 57.8 (52.5 to 63.0) | 16.7 (11.5 to 22.9) | 97.2 (93.9 to 98.9) | 0.80 (0.73 to 0.86) |
| CURB-65 (⩾3) | 66.6 (49.0 to 81.3) | 66.3 (61.1 to 71.2) | 16.7 (10.9 to 23.8) | 95.2 (91.7 to 97.8) | 0.73 (0.65 to 0.81) |
| Modified BTS | 94.3 (81.3 to 99.3) | 49.4 (44.1 to 54.7) | 15.9 (11.2 to 21.5) | 98.8 (96.0 to 99.8) | 0.72 (0.67 to 0.76) |
| rATS | 72.2 (54.8 to 85.8) | 87.9 (84.9 to 91.1) | 37.7 (26.3 to 50.1) | 96.9 (94.4 to 98.5) | 0.80 (0.73 to 0.88) |