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Thorax 58:1020-1026 doi:10.1136/thorax.58.12.1020
  • α1-antitrypsin deficiency

Predictors of mortality in α1-antitrypsin deficiency

Table 3

Final result of multivariate analysis of parameters used to predict mortality as part of Cox proportional hazards method for all cause mortality (n = 170 total, deaths = 15) and respiratory mortality (n = 164, deaths = 9)

B p value Hazard ratio
Most significant parameter from univariate analysis entered at step 1, then parameters that remain significant entered in subsequent steps. All parameters included as in univariate analysis in table 2; only significant covariates shown at each step. B = estimated coefficient; significance shown (p value). Hazard ratio = eB, the predicted multiplicative change in the hazard for a unit increase in the predictor (>1 indicates that, as the predictor increases, the hazard, i.e. mortality, also increases); 95% confidence intervals shown in parentheses. In this model the hazard ratios for the significant covariates shown at each step are additive.
All cause mortality:
Step 1: Upper expiratory scan 0.039 0.001 1.039 (1.015 to 1.064)
Step 2 (final): Upper expiratory scan 0.037 0.003 1.038 (1.012 to 1.064)
    Age 0.059 0.035 1.061 (1.004 to 1.121)
Respiratory mortality:
Step 1: Upper expiratory scan 0.053 0.001 1.054 (1.022 to 1.087)
Step 2: Upper expiratory scan 0.054 0.001 1.056 (1.021 to 1.091)
    Age 0.102 0.015 1.100 (1.018 to 1.187)
Step 3: Upper expiratory scan 0.031 0.161 1.031 (0.988 to 1.076)
    Age 0.102 0.016 1.108 (1.019 to 1.204)
    Lower expiratory scan 0.084 0.037 1.088 (1.005 to 1.177)
Step 4 (final): Lower expiratory scan 0.099 0.006 1.105 (1.028 to 1.186)
Age 0.097 0.020 1.102 (1.015 to 1.196)

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