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Dr Knight and colleagues report about a large-scale external validation of the 4C (ISARIC (International Severe Acute Respiratory and emerging Infections Consortium) Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium) prediction models to predict in-hospital outcomes in patients admitted to a hospital because of COVID-19.1 The models use commonly available information to predict the probability of in-hospital deterioration and mortality (https://isaric4c.net/risk/). While the models require quite a few variables, they do allow for missingness of some predictors, which facilitates their use in practice. The ISARIC4C consortium was able to compile data from 76 588 patients from 306 hospitals and nine NHS regions of England, Scotland and Wales. The high frequency of outcome events (37.4% deteriorated and 25.1% died) allowed for very precise estimates of discrimination and calibration in the entire study population, but also in subgroups. Another strength is the temporal validation. The validation showed good performance of both models, similar to the predictive performance in the development cohort that consisted of patients hospitalised during …
Footnotes
Contributors MP drafted the editorial, and MS reviewed and revised it. Both authors finalised the editorial.
Funding The authors have not declared a specific grant for this research from any funding agency in the public, commercial or not-for-profit sectors.
Competing interests None declared.
Provenance and peer review Commissioned; externally peer reviewed.